Security has a greater impact on land prices during wartime than fertility – an opinion

The difference in the cost of agricultural land between western and frontline regions is primarily determined by security risks, the feasibility of cultivation, and the costs of demining. At the same time, the land market continues to function, and the cost of land parcels and leases is rising.

Chairman of the UNBA Committee on investment and privatization Andriy Shabelnikov discussed this on the «Ranok.LIVE» program.

According to data cited by the hosts from the Center for Food and Land Use Research at the Kyiv School of Economics, the average price per hectare has nearly tripled in the five years since the market opened. In 2026, it stands at about 88,000 UAH. The highest average price was recorded in Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast — 139,000 UAH per hectare while the lowest was in Luhansk Oblast — 30,000 UAH.

Commenting on these figures, A. Shabelnikov noted that the rise in prices has not driven citizens out of the land market. According to him, land share owners are reluctant to sell their plots, there has been no mass buying up of land by agricultural holdings, and the rise in land and lease prices is increasing owners’ incomes.

The speaker also highlighted competition among tenants. In some regions, he said, rent offers per hectare have risen from 2,000 UAH to 5,000–15,000 UAH. This allows landowners to earn higher income from their land shares.

During martial law, the privatization of land plots up to 2 hectares in size has been suspended. At the same time, the market remains open to legal entities, and the maximum area that can be acquired has been increased from 100 to 10,000 hectares. However, according to the advocate’s assessment, there has been no widespread formation of large land banks due to the significant investment required and war-related risks.

Explaining the price differences between regions, A. Shabelnikov noted that the most fertile lands are located, in particular, in the Kharkiv and Kirovohrad regions, but the Ivano-Frankivsk region surpasses them in terms of cost per hectare. He cited the security situation, the ability to farm safely, and the absence of demining costs as the decisive factors. According to his estimate, demining one hectare can cost over 30,000 UAH.

The advocate also attributes the potential for further growth in land values to the difference between the Ukrainian and European markets. For comparison, he cited prices of approximately 16,000 euros per hectare in Poland, 8,700 euros in Romania, and 6,000 euros in Hungary. He forecasts that the value of Ukrainian land will continue to rise.